There is more than meets the eye to our next matchup. In theory, Duke should have no trouble at all against Minnesota, considering their histories and their respective standing in the college basketball landscape. However, this tournament is all about NBA performance, and both schools have produced a rich mix of NBA talent. How will the matchup between the NBA Duke Blue Devils vs. NBA Minnesota Golden Gophers play out? Several key factors will determine who advances to the Sweet 16.
Key Matchups
Kevin McHale vs. Duke’s frontline – McHale, one of the greatest power forwards of all time, will face several different looks from the Blue Devils. Luol Deng will start off on him, but Mike Dunleavy, Carlos Boozer, and Christian Laettner should all have a chance to guard him. Duke may have to utilize a double-team and play zone defense at times to disrupt his rhythm, since he should not have trouble with any of these defenders. On defense, McHale is versatile enough to guard Deng and Dunleavy on the perimeter, and he won’t embarrass himself if he’s forced to guard Grant Hill. Overall, McHale is a nice trump card who allows Minnesota to play big without sacrificing anything defensively against Duke’s modern offense.
Grant Hill vs. Sweet Lou and friends – Hill will split time with Kyrie Irving running Duke’s offense. He’ll primarily be matched up against Minnesota’s best perimeter scorer, Sweet Lou Hudson. Hill is bigger and more athletic than Hudson and should have a good series on both ends of the court. Hudson was a game defender, but he’ll likely need help from his teammates against the versatile Hill. Expect McHale to spend some time on Hill, with Hudson switching off to the bigger but less impactful Luol Deng. Off the bench, Minnesota does not have many ideal options to play against Hill or scoring wing Corey Maggette. Jim Brewer was a defensive stud, but he was more of a traditional power forward who was not used to defending quick, athletically dominant opponents. Mark Olberding would likely get the assignment, but Hill or Maggette should have their way if this matchup materializes. On the other end, Duke’s Shane Battier can harass Hudson all over the court and prevent any easy buckets for the should-be-Hall-of-Famer.
Biggest Mismatches
Duke’s bench vs. Minnesota’s bench – Duke’s bench provides them with a range of options in playing their opponents. Battier can give them an airtight perimeter defense when paired with Deng and Hill. J.J. Redick and Mike Dunleavy open up the floor for their teammates. Bob Verga, Maggette, and Carlos Boozer can provide instant offense, while Christian Laettner gives them a versatile big man who can do a little of everything on the offensive end. Minnesota’s bench is led by Bobby Jackson, who can provide instant offense, Trent Tucker and Voshon Lenard, who can shoot the lights out, and Brewer, who can provide a strong interior defensive presence, but it has neither the high-end talent nor depth of its counterpart.
Minnesota’s size advantage up front – Duke will typically forgo traditional two-big lineups, instead using Deng and Dunleavy as stretch-fours who can compete on both ends of the court. That should be good news for McHale as mentioned above, and he and Brewer should be able to take advantage of this on the glass as well. Mychal Thompson will have his hands full with Elton Brand, but he can use his height advantage to bother Brand on defense. If Thompson can keep up with Brand on the boards, Minnesota should be in good shape, but Duke’s size on the wing will help to mitigate this.
X-Factor
What will Duke’s late-game offense look like? Kyrie Irving is the best guard in this series, and the best bucket-getter for the Blue Devils. He can create any shot he wants, and he’s had success as a closer late in games. He’ll have to find the right balance between hero-ball and putting his teammates in position to succeed. Duke has an array of shooters they can pair Irving with, along with Hill and Brand, who should be involved in the closing minutes. Minnesota will primarily rely on Hudson and McHale down the stretch, though Archie Clark will be involved as well, preferably in more of a facilitator role.
Results
Minnesota comes to play, and utilizes their strong frontcourt and brilliant performances by McHale and Clark to take several games. However, Duke utilizes their depth and versatility to wear down the Golden Gophers over the course of the series. Their strong perimeter defense on Hudson limits his effectiveness, and Irving helps them close it out in six hard fought games.
Duke wins, four games to two.
Next Round
Duke faces the winner of San Francisco vs. Georgetown.